Time in the market > timing the market
* Early years = outcome depends heavily on timing
* Mid-term = probability accelerates quickly
* Long-term = downside risk largely collapses
Hereâs the scoop: we analyzed quarterly national home price data from the FHFA (All-Transactions House Price Index, USA) going back to 1975. For each holding period (1â50 years), we tested every possible historical âbuy quarterâ and compared it to the price exactly X years later. A result counted as positive only if the sale price exceeded the purchase price after assuming ~8% total transaction costs. The percentage shown is simply the share of those historical holding periods that ended positive.
Doesnât factor in mortgage leverage, rent savings, taxes, maintenance, or tax advantages.
This is historical data, not investment advice. Results are national averages, local markets vary.
H/T @jonerlichman
My interview w/ Redfin CEO | Thereâs been plenty of speculation about what Redfinâs new home at Rocket Companies means for the industry, and how a tech-powered brokerage taking on the entire real estate transaction (brokerage, mortgage, title) could shake the industry.
So I went straight to the source.
In my next episode of Playmakers, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman shares the inside story of building Redfin, its acquisition by Rocket Companies, and his vision for a more transparent, AI-powered, and âliquidâ housing market. Plus, candid lessons from the wins, missteps, and turning points from what I consider to be one of the most ambitious plays in real estate.
Subscribe to Playmakers wherever you get your podcasts so you donât miss this exclusive interview. Dropping this week!
đ¸ AJ Canaria
This door knocking script helped @jamesbondst do $160M in production in one year. Comment âKNOCKâ for the full script and follow @aflachner for more.
The most viral ârent vs buyâ chart is also the laziest and most misleading. Buyer beware!
Buy a $500k house with 20% down = $100k invested. If the home appreciates 10%, it gains $50k in value. Thatâs not a 10% gain; itâs a 50% return (before costs) on your original $100k.
Great agents âdonât mortgage their futures for gains in the present,â according to @iamguygal in a recent Playmakers Podcast episode. Check out the whole interview wherever you get your podcasts.
Which strategy wins the listing? (A) Broad and early listing exposure; (B) Compass's Three-Phased Marketing Strategy?
Does that change in a buyerâs market?
What's the YoY appreciation in your market?
Outside of the Global Financial Crisis (2007â2011), U.S. homes have appreciated virtually every year for the past seven decades. Thatâs a remarkably consistent track record,and it doesnât even account for the power of leverage. A 10% gain on a $500K home builds $50K in equity on a $100K down payment.
Who wins here: brokerages, agents, or consumers?
Here's the scoop: Today at the T3 Summit, the biggest CEOs in real estate shared their POV on private/coming soon listings. Here's what you missed.
Donât chase leads. Leverage relationships and shared trust to get warm, endorsed referrals at scale.
Powerful insight from The Playmakers Podcast together with @aflachner
Watch the full episode to hear our discussion.
