Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2026: Ukrainian forces struck several Russian defense industrial plants and oil infrastructure objects in Moscow City and Oblast overnight on May 16 to 17 following Russia’s intensified strike series against Ukraine on May 13 and 14.
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Other Key Takeaways:
Ukraine’s May 16 to 17 strike series proved that Russia continues to be unable to effectively defend the Russian capital, a weakness that generated significant frustration in the Russian ultranationalist information space.
Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian warships in the Caspian Sea overnight on May 16 to 17. Russian forces launched 278 drones against Ukraine.
Iran Update Special Report, May 17, 2026: The United States and Iran continue to pursue fundamentally incompatible negotiating positions. Unspecified sources familiar with the US response to the latest Iranian counterproposal told Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News Agency on May 17 that the United States laid out its five main conditions in response to the latest Iranian proposal.
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Likely Iranian or Iranian-backed forces launched three drones targeting the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), on May 17. Radiation levels at the plant remain normal. The drones approached the target from the west. Iran has previously used drones to approach a target from an unexpected direction to obscure its responsibility and create challenges for air defenses. IRGC-affiliated media used the attack to attempt to drive a wedge between the UAE and other Gulf States by blaming Saudi Arabia for the attack.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2026: The seniormost Russian military command presented a highly inaccurate assessment of the battlefield situation for the fifth consecutive month, absurdly claiming that Russian forces are advancing west of Kupyansk, which they have not, in fact, taken.
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Other Key Takeaways:
Gerasimov’s claimed advances west of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Borova-Lyman line are egregious even in comparison to the most expansive Russian ultranationalist claims in the area.
These aggrandized claims of fictional advances along with milblogger complaints may indicate that the highest echelon of the Russian military command is either unaware of or unwilling to admit the realities of the battlefield even to itself, and is therefore allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning.
Russian milbloggers continue to warn that Ukrainian counterattacks and false reports of advances in other areas of the frontline are creating difficult situations to which the Russian military command cannot adequately respond.
The Kremlin continues to expand its passportization efforts in Transnistria – the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova — to deepen Russian influence in the region.
Ukrainian forces advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure in Stavropol Krai. Russian forces launched 294 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
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Iran Update, May 16, 2026: The Iranian regime is introducing a formalized toll system under the guise of maritime insurance policies and continuing to deploy incentives and threats to vessels in the Persian Gulf as part of their efforts to normalize and solidify Iranian control over the strait. This system appears designed to be more palatable than an outright “toll” by framing it as a “maritime insurance policy.” The insurance presumably insures the vessel against an Iranian attack.
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Other Key Takeaways:
Iran is trying to circumvent the US naval blockade by expanding alternative overland and rail trade routes through the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Pakistan, and Iraq. These alternative trade routes are unlikely to replace the scale and efficiency of maritime trade through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, however.
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to continue dialogue and extend the ceasefire but appear to remain at odds over key issues surrounding Hezbollah and its status. Israeli and Lebanese officials have long disagreed on the implementation mechanism, timing, and other political details related to Hezbollah’s disarmament and Israel’s military presence in southern Lebanon.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2026: Russian President Vladimir Putin is positively portraying data about Russia’s economic performance that actually shows a strained economy.
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Other Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia has been reconnoitering decision-making centers in and near Kyiv City for possible future strikes.
Sanctions relief for Russia, particularly when coupled with the slowing supplies of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, would increase the already significant threat that Russian missile strikes pose to Ukraine.
A Russian state-owned polling institution recently began door-to-door surveys and recorded slightly higher approval and trust ratings for Russian President Vladimir Putin after falling for weeks.
Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 250 prisoners on May 15 as part of the larger 1000-for-1000 prisoner exchange they agreed to as part of the Victory Day ceasefire.
Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka directions.
Russian forces launched six missiles and 141 drones toward Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Ryazan Oblast, naval assets in the Republic of Dagestan, and aircraft in Krasnodar Krai.
Iran Update Special Report, May 15, 2026: Senior Iranian officials continue to demand guarantees against future US-Israeli attacks as a precondition for negotiations, and the Iranian regime likely views recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz as one such guarantee.
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The People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not appear to have made a clear commitment to support US efforts to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s assertion of control over the strait is inconsistent with the long-stated PRC position, however.
Iran may have decided to deprioritize certain restrictive measures in the Strait of Hormuz, such as toll collection, in order to encourage states such as the PRC to cooperate with Iran and implicitly recognize its control over the strait.
The Iranian regime is attempting to ease economic pressures that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports is imposing upon the Iranian economy by taking measures to preserve necessary economic resources, while attempting to keep the Iranian public calm ahead of expected shortages.
The UAE announced on May 15 that it will accelerate efforts to double the export capacity in Fujairah to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the UAE’s strategic vulnerability.
Unspecified Western diplomats told Western media on May 14 that Saudi Arabia is discussing pursuing a potential non-aggression pact with Iran after the war, but it is unclear how much meaningful progress there has been towards such a pact. Iran could theoretically attack Gulf states under the guise of targeting US assets in each country, even under such a pact.
The US State Department announced on May 15 that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend the temporary ceasefire for an additional 45 days.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders and political figures are threatening to withdraw their support for new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi’s government amid US pressure to deny Iranian-backed figures positions of influence in the Iraqi government.
China & Taiwan Update, May 15, 2026: US-PRC Diplomatic Engagement: US President Donald Trump met with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping from May 13 to 15. Their discussions focused primarily on economic and trade-related issues; neither side strayed from established policy and rhetoric when speaking on geopolitical topics.
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Other Key Takeaways:
Taiwan’s military plans to deploy its HIMARS to the outlying islands of Penghu and Dongyin. Unnamed sources within the Taiwanese military stated that these deployments would help deter a PLA invasion of Taiwan.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2026: Russian forces have conducted two days of nearly continuous strikes against Ukraine with over 1,600 total long-range drones and missiles that heavily targeted Kyiv City and resulted in high civilian casualties.
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Other Key Takeaways:
The large-scale strike against Kyiv City did not violate the Russian-Ukrainian Victory Day ceasefire but nonetheless demonstrates that Russia is a bad faith negotiator.
The Kremlin continues to replace border oblast governors, likely to scapegoat regional officials for broader border security failures.
Shuvayev, who has been in command of units that have reportedly committed war crimes in Ukraine, is part of the new “elite” Putin is forming in the Russian government through the “Time of Heroes” program.
The Kremlin is increasing its efforts to censor reactions to Ukrainian strikes against Moscow City, suggesting that it is growing concerned about its inability to protect the Russian rear.
Russian commanders continue to order Russian soldiers to commit war crimes in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.
Iran Update Special Report, May 14, 2026: Iran may be prioritizing upholding the “legitimacy” of its claims to the Strait of Hormuz over toll collection at this time. This prioritization helps Iran encourage states to implicitly recognize its control over the strait while avoiding international concerns over paying the Iranians and incurring sanctions risk. Legitimizing any aspect of Iranian control over the strait, with or without tolls, is unacceptable due to the precedent it sets.
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Other Key Takeaways:
Iran is likely prioritizing the implementation of the protocol over the tolls at this time in order to present itself as a reasonable actor that is willing to “open” the strait to “free” travel without tolls. Recognizing Iran’s protocol — which bars certain countries from accessing the strait and not others based on their behavior — is unacceptable because it implies that the Strait of Hormuz is sovereign Iranian territory. The PRC only explicitly opposes the toll system and the Iranian “blockade,” but has not explicitly opposed Iranian claims to sovereignty, for example.
PRC companies have been reportedly discussing arms sales routed via third-party countries with Iranian officials, but currently it is unclear to what extent PRC officials have decided to approve these sales and subsequent weapons shipments, according to New York Times reporting on May 13 that cited US officials.
Russian Occupation Update, May 14, 2026: The Kremlin-appointed Commissioner for Children’s Rights published a report on Russia’s policy toward Ukrainian children. The report attempted to deny well-documented evidence of Russia’s treatment of Ukrainian children.
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Other Key Takeaways:
Russian occupation officials continue to temporarily transfer and deport Ukrainian children to Russian-run summer camps in occupied Ukraine and Russia.
The European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Canada imposed sanctions on Russian officials and entities involved in the forced deportation, militarization, and indoctrination of Ukrainian children.
The Russian Zemsky Teacher and Zemsky Cultural Worker programs continue to place Russian citizens in influential educational and cultural positions in occupied Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Education approved an official concept for the implementation of historical education that will grant the Russian state even greater control over the school system and educational materials in occupied Ukraine.
The Zarnitsa 2.0 youth military-patriotic competition continues in occupied Ukraine.
Occupied Oleshky is facing a worsening humanitarian crisis that the Russian occupation leadership shows no signs of remedying.
Russia’s persecution of Jehovah’s Witnesses continues in occupied Crimea.
From @cnn : "Russia’s winning streak in Ukraine is over"
"Last month, Ukraine managed to liberate more land than Russia seized – the first time Moscow suffered a net loss of territory since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into the southern Russian Kursk region, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor."
Chart data courtesy of ISW and AEI's Critical Threats Project.
