🇬🇷 Greece was once shut out of markets, reliant on external support, and collecting too little tax. Today, it is one of only five EU countries running a primary budget surplus.
This striking reversal reflects a transformed tax administration that steadily closed compliance gaps and rebuilt fiscal credibility. The reform unfolded in three phases: stabilization (2010-12), institution building (2013-17), and digital transformation (2018-25), with IMF capacity development supporting each stage.
The results speak for themselves. Greece's tax-to-GDP ratio climbed from 20.5% in 2009 to 28% in 2025. VAT revenues rose by 2.4 percentage points of GDP over 15 years. The primary surplus reached nearly 5% of GDP in 2024-25, while public debt fell by about 65 percentage points from its 2020 peak.
Read more in our Country Focus blog. Link in Bio
Budgets are a government’s core policy tool. But in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, actual outcomes often differ from what was planned.
New IMF research shows that deficits tend to exceed targets, driven by optimistic revenue projections and higher current spending, while infrastructure investment is often delayed.
These gaps can weaken fiscal discipline and reduce confidence. Strengthening budget credibility—through better forecasting, stronger spending controls, and improved institutions—can help support economic stability and development.
Learn more | Link in the Bio
Developing countries are under pressure as revenues from oil, gas, and mining decline and foreign aid grants fall. Since 2000, these two sources have dropped by a combined 3.8% of GDP, while higher tax collection has recovered only 2.6%.
That gap matters. Stronger domestic revenue systems can help countries rely less on volatile income sources, build fiscal resilience, and better support growth and development.
🔗 Click the link in our bio to read our latest Chart of the Week blog.
War in the Middle East severely disrupted maritime and air traffic. Even in the best case, there will be no clean return to the way things were. See our latest Chart of the Week blog.
Link in Bio
Thank you to our members for a very constructive Spring Meetings, and to IMF staff for once again rising to the challenge. The countdown to Bangkok begins now—see you in Thailand for the Annual Meetings.
What’s ahead for the global economy in 2026?
Growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026. Inflation is set to rise to 4.4% before easing to 3.7% in 2027—a 0.6 percentage point upward revision relative to January, driven by higher commodity prices.
CFR President Michael Froman spoke with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF's curtain raiser ahead of the 2026 Spring Meetings.
They discussed the IMF's macroeconomic outlook, including its latest analysis on the impact of the Iran war on global growth, inflation, and economic stability.
Watch the Managing Director's speech and their full conversation at the link in our bio.
