Yesterday morning there was a 0.34m low tide at Port Kembla, today was a 0.39m low.
Nothing particularly abnormal, so why was there reef showing we don't usually see and the rock jump became a potentially expensive proposition?
The thing is, the ocean tides are only a prediction. They calculate the effects of the sun and the moon, but they don't account for atmospheric influences.
We're currently under a 1030hPa high pressure system and that's exerting downwards pressure on the land and the seas.
The land can resist it, while the seas are pushed down, lowering the sea level. It's called the Inverted Barometer Effect.
The tidal gauge at Bundeena is currently showing the sea level 22cm below what it would be at average pressure of 1013hPa.
In effect that means low tide yesterday morning was approx. 0.12m and today's 0.19m.
FWIW the very lowest tide of 2026 is a predicted 0.09m - so we were 3cms off that.
If today you're shopping to replace a fin lost on the rocks, there's your reason why.
"It’s what happens once Cyclone Narelle hits the Southern Ocean that is of most interest to us. Narelle's remnants are expected to interact with another low before pushing east towards Victoria."
"Admittedly, much of this is on the outer fringes of the forecast, yet it'd be remiss of us to waste a good headline so we're diving into an early, early Bells forecast - take it with a grain of jarosite."
'Hells Bells Narelle'. A half-baked surf forecast courtesy of Swellnet. On the site now.
27° water offshore from Ulladulla?
Though the NSW coast had a recent cold water upwelling, there's currently a ribbon of radically warm water not far offshore - see image 1.
That hot pink colour represents 27° (FWIW tropical cyclones need water of 26.5°to sustain themselves)
Just over two years ago, the Sydney waverider buoy recorded its highest water temp of 26.75° - see image 2 - yet the ribbon of warm water didn't extend far south.
Not sure why this is happening, but image 3, which shows the anomaly (the difference from the long term trend), shows this isn't happening everywhere, just the NSW coast.
Perhaps something to do with Western Boundary Currents moving excess heat from the tropics.
Last season, footage of Lance’s Right with a Superbank-style crowd hit the internet. Macaronis - another A-grade Mentawai wave - has been immune to those sorts of scenes owing to an enforceable surfer limit.
Last month, however, the limit was scrapped.
How much you cheer that on will likely be determined by your access options.
Link in bio for more info.
The Cronulla Sandhills as shot by Greg Button in the 70s.
The dunes are no more, however if you live in a brick house in Australia there's a good chance you've at least got a few souvenirs of them.
They didn't just make a good brick, the dunes also made good sandbanks, and now they're gone so too are Cronulla's banks.
But this is not a tale of woe, in fact it's a tale of hope. A deposit of sand has been discovered offshore from Botany Bay and scientists and surfers are currently assessing the viability of rehoming it onto a beach that's in dire need of the grainy stuff.
Read more in the bio.
You could write a book about Maurice Cole’s life. Perhaps someday someone will. I wish them luck as it’s one hell of a story.
Maurice’s life is an epic that spans eras and continents, he’s been in the gutter of despair, and he’s tasted the sweetest success. He’s been damaged and he’s damaged others.
Check the site or link in bio for the extended chat as Stu Nettle sits down with MC.
📷 @micksowry
Maurice asks Big Bird the directions to Sesame Street.
Journalist asks Maurice the secret to surfboard design.
Link in bio.
@glass_hut_@mcsurfboards@mcsurfboardsaus
Curious events up at Caloundra...
Clown-town is the only beach on the Sunshine Coast with northerly wind protection. This fact, combined with tidal sandbanks made Caloundra Bar a regional classic when easterly lines hit the coast and the wind vane swung north.
In 2022, waves from Cyclone Seth broke through Bribie Island, drawing tidal flow away from Caloundra. This year Cyclone Alfred created two more openings and Caloundra Bar is no more (see image 2)
Meanwhile, the northern tip of Bribie was a broad sandy shallow (image 3)
Last month, in a show of engineering optimism, the QLD govt began emergency work to dredge the passage and block the new openings, hopefully directing water back towards Caloundra Bar.
They've been gifted the flattest spring in decades, though the first trade swell of the season is now on the charts, and who knows what will happen once cyclone season begins?
At $20M it's a contentious project, especially considering Bribie has been eroding westwards for decades.
However, if they pull it off they may just resuscitate a great, if infrequent, wave.
Further, if this part of the project is successful then they'll progress to the 'long term strategy' that includes coastal engineering such as an artificial reef.
More info on Swellnet.
(Bribie photos by @blueys_photography )
"I first got fascinated by Greg Clough when he had Aloha and he would make rounded pin twins for Barton Lynch when he was younger. In my mind's eye, I was like, 'It just looks right.'"
"You know how you have little snippets of memory that you never lose? That image has stuck with me. I think I’ve built upon it."
"I certainly wasn't the first person to do it, but if you look at what we did and see that, all of a sudden, a spark flew around the world…well, it does make me feel good."
Simon Jones reflecting on the design he's most associated with: the mid-length twin fin.
From a recent chat with Simon. Link in bio.
It's been a couple of years, but Russell Bierke returns with another film showcasing the shimmering edge of possibility.
Understated as always, Russ and I had a chat about big waves and...actually that's all we spoke about.
'Inner Mechanics' is playing tonight at Freshwater and Milton on Friday.
Link in bio.
In October 2024, my old mate @damionfuller.co held an art exhibition at Beach Road Hotel, Bondi.
There I bought a woodcut titled 'The Gunnery', intending to hang it in my soon-to-be-finished shed. Knew just the spot.
I must've watched too much Backyard Blitz, where they transform a yard in a single arvo, cos I slightly underestimated how long the project would take. Twelve months later the thing still isn't finished.
Enough of it is done, however, to this weekend hang the woodcut in its rightful place.
Might take a break now that all the important stuff is done...
