Ray Dalio

I am of course thrilled that How Countries Go Broke: the Big Cycle is now the #1 New York Times best-selling book and has been so enthusiastically supported by the most knowledgeable and influential people on both sides of the political divide. That's because I am on a mission to have people understand the mechanics behind this important issue and to provide clear recommendations to policy makers and investors about how to handle it at this critical time. I hope you will read it and benefit from it. Recommendations from 3 prior Treasury Secretaries: "Brilliant, iconoclastic approach to understanding financial markets" - Larry Summers "This book is a gift to humanity" - Hank Paulson "An excellent and bracing study" - Timothy Geithner

Today is the launch day for my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. I wrote this book because I believe now is a critical time when it comes to the global debt burden. I’ve spent a lot of time over the last 50 years as a global macro investor finding the indicators of debt problems, and I want to pass along what I’ve learned so that policymakers and individuals can try to deal with our current situation well. Through studying history, I’ve come to realize that everything happens due to cause-effect relationships that can be studied and understood. So reality works like a perpetual motion machine that began an eternity ago and will take us into the future. That perspective has driven my approach to life which has led to whatever success I have had. And I hope it will help others better understand how we got where we are, and what we need to do next to avoid bad outcomes for everyone. Our current debt situation has implications for almost all markets and economies. So if you’re interested in learning more, I hope you’ll give it a read — and I’m excited to continue exchanging ideas about this with you on social media. You can find a link to order the book in my bio. And as always, I welcome your thoughts. #principles #raydalio #debt #economics #history

My first breakthrough in understanding how people think differently occurred when I was a young father and had my kids tested by Dr. Sue Quinlan. I found the results remarkable, because she not only confirmed my own observations of the ways that their minds were working at the time but also predicted how they would develop in the future. I turned to her and others years later when I was trying to figure out the different thinking styles of my employees and colleagues. #principleoftheday

When entering this second phase of life, you are almost certainly making the mistake of thinking you know more than you actually know—especially if you got good grades in school. You were taught that success is a matter of learning what you were taught and not making mistakes. That probably made you a bit arrogant, like I was when I graduated. But it is living life and encountering your realities that will truly teach you. The question is, will you learn?  You can watch the full speech at the link in my bio. #principles

The most important thing you can do is understand that hiring is a high risk gamble that needs to be approached deliberately. A lot of time, effort, and resources go into hiring and developing new employees before it’s clear whether or not they are good fits. Months or even years and countless dollars can be wasted in training and retraining. (For example, every person you hire requires you to hire others to support them. I call this the “1.6 effect.”) Some of those costs are intangible, including loss of morale and a gradual diminishment of standards as people who aren’t excellent in their roles bump into each other; other costs from bad outcomes can be measured all too easily in dollars and cents. So whenever you think you are ready to make someone an offer, think one last time about the important things that might go wrong and what else you can do to better assess those risks and raise your probability of being right. #principleoftheday

If you’re interested in learning about my most important investment and economic principles, I designed a course to help you do just that. It’s called the Dalio Market Principles Online program — a 30-hour curriculum I designed, in partnership with @wmisingapore (WMI). You’ll learn about the forces that drive markets and asset returns, economic and currency cycles, paradigm shifts, and more. Better yet, you’ll get to test your own thinking in our portfolio simulator so you can learn from your mistakes and be better prepared for the future. I hope you’ll check it out at the link in my bio, if you’re interested.

There are few things that are more important for the health of the world than the health of U.S.-China relations and the health of our oceans. For over 40 years, I have cared deeply about both, and I was thrilled that OceanX was able to bring together American and Chinese students and early-career scientists on a goodwill mission last month. Watch here to see a little bit of what it was like and the meaningful relationships that came out of it.

While there’s a lot being written about the Supreme Court decisions on tariffs, I wanted to take a moment to step back and clearly lay out my thoughts on them. Many people think of tariffs as purely disruptive, but throughout history, they’ve been a primary source of government revenue. In an ideal world, you wouldn’t have tariffs — each country would make and trade the things they are capable of producing efficiently. But as the world becomes increasingly fragmented, we have to look beyond pure economic efficiency and consider the necessity of self-sufficiency. For that reason, tariffs are anything but simple. To understand who truly benefits and who pays the price, you have to look at the full system.

Most people see the things around them without considering the forces that created them. In most cases those forces were specific people with specific qualities who worked in specific ways. Change the people and you change how things develop; replace creators with noncreators and you stop having creations. #principleoftheday

Whether it’s in your private life or your work life, it is best for you to work with others in such a way that each person is matched up with other complementary people to create the best mix of attributes for their tasks. #principleoftheday

While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it. Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold. Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system.

No one is exempt from this process. Having it go well depends on people’s abilities to make frank assessments of strengths and weaknesses (most importantly weaknesses). While it’s generally as difficult for managers to give this feedback as it is for their subordinates to hear it, in the long run it makes people happier and the organization more successful. By interacting with my digital twin, you can evaluate your own decision-making processes and evolve your approach in real-time. The faster you evolve, the faster your results will follow. Click the link in my bio to start our conversation now. #principleoftheday