Lee Safar

There’s a question that I have received this year more than any and it’s time that I address it. Over the last day or so, quite a few people sent me a great article written by @coffeegirlstravels from @onebiggislandinspace about WOC San Diego. The article is great and you should go read it. People wanted to know what I thought about it because it raises really important questions about the SCA, their agenda, what role we’re playing by enabling the circus (my words not Michelle’s) and how the cognitive dissonance of it all sits with those of us who see the cringe worthy irony that this wealth is being celebrated will most smallholder farmers are getting ready to leave their farms forever. This cognitive dissonance is why I do not go to SCA trade shows. I know me being there or not means nothing to the @specialtycoffeeassociation , nor does it do anything to solve the problems that so many of us so desperately know need fixing. My protest only serves to make sure I can maintain my integrity, not be a hypocrite, and maintain my dignity in the face of coffee producers, who I care so much for. This position that I have taken has raised one question I have been constantly been asked the past 2 years, and more so from people who have shared Michelle’s article with me. I thought it was time to answer it publicly. Details in the video. Happy to answer any questions or clarify things further in the comments if there’s something you’re not clear on. ✌️

@fridadeguise - standup comedian, entrepreneur, and the founder of world famous @l.adonuts and @fridas.pies is one of kind! She’s saying all the parts out loud about owning a small business! This series on the Daily Coffee Pro podcast, Frida joins me for a refreshing 5 episodes of not holding back about the challenges of building a business when you don’t have any experience but all the talent. If you have sensitive ears or don’t like real talk, this series is not for you. For everyone else, this series is pure joy! We laughter and talked shit about everything business related for hours. She’s the queen of donuts! I’m super proud of what she’s achieved and to have her on the podcast! Enjoy! They don’t make them like Frida anymore!

Are you waiting for coffee to get cheap again? If so id love you to reconsider! We should all be hoping that coffee never goes “Cheap” again. Particularly if we want to give coffee farmers a reason to keep farming coffee. The future is going to get complicated in coffee. I hope you’re ready for it! What are your thoughts?

Did the q evolving into the CVA make things better or worse for the quality professionals in the coffee industry? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments!

Conventions are not the place to find new sales! That was one of the take aways from the first of our monthly Patreon community discussion groups for April. Through a rich conversation it became clear that trade shows aren’t the place to convert on sales for coffee. They’re a place to build relationships and socialize. Given the large cost to attend trade shows, the cost to convert on sales is significantly increased when you’re using trade shows as a part of your acquisition strategy. The luxury to attend will be impacted by the coffee crisis and the war on Iran, further increasing the cost to convert into sales. Rich conversations had all round in the 2 hour session. If you’d like to join our next session next week, sign up at /mapitforward as a paid or free member and you can try it for one meeting for free. Then you can join the top tier to join more sessions. Comment or DM if you’d like a clickable link!

In March 2026, Centurium Capital, the investment firm behind Luckin Coffee, acquired Blue Bottle’s global café business from Nestlé. This isn’t just another acquisition. It’s a very clear signal about where the coffee industry is going. What’s happening here is not about scale alone. It’s about owning two fundamentally different business models at the same time. Luckin has built its dominance through speed, price, and digital convenience. Blue Bottle represents the opposite end of the spectrum: specialty credibility, premium positioning, and a brand built on craft and experience. Centurium didn’t buy Blue Bottle to turn it into Luckin. They bought it because it gives them something they don’t already have, and would struggle to build from scratch: trust at the premium end of the market. At the same time, Nestlé holding onto the consumer products side of Blue Bottle makes the strategy even clearer. Different parts of the value chain require different operators, different capabilities, and different long-term plays. This is what the next phase of the coffee industry looks like. Not businesses choosing between specialty or scale, but learning how to operate both, without diluting either. Blue Bottle isn’t a profitable business, so what, if anything, do you think that Luckin will do to make it profitable? I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments! Peace ✌️

We need to talk more about the coffee consumer. This time about the impact household debt will have on them and subsequently their buying habits. When an increasing number of households in western countries that consume large amounts of coffee are are using buy-now-pay-later schemes to pay for groceries, this is an important signal that our industry should play close attention to. What this signal says exactly is a much longer discussion. If you’d like to join our monthly discussion group for free to explore this more (free this month only to new members) become a free member of our Patreon community at /mapitforward. This is a time to prepare for all scenarios. When the shifting comes, it will come quickly.

The cafe space has changed over the past 5 years. Coffee is being used more as an ingredient and the feature of a beverage. As we see Matcha and signature drinks take up more and more space on the menu, we’re also seeing consumers willing to pay more for those beverages rather than spend more on coffee. As more stressful financial pressures take hold, things are changing for coffee consumers and cafe customers. With a cost of living crisis before the war with Iran already stressing household budgets, the rising fuel costs left consumers having to prioritize energy costs over affordable luxuries like coffee. Consumer sentiment is shifting to more affordable options, which mostly means brewing at home or buying cheaper beans. Businesses that are able to adapt to changes will understand how to take advantage of these shifts and activate customer acquisition strategies that bring new customers into their businesses. Other businesses will, unfortunately, not be prepared to adapt. We are discussing customer acquisition strategies in this month's monthly discussion groups. If you’d like to join us this month for free, head to /mapitforward and become a free member, and you can try this first month free. DM if you’d like a clickable link.

With the volatility and stress continuing to build in supply chains around the world we’re going to see destruction and opportunity present themselves. How do you know what are the right opportunities to take and which you should walk away from? @rawkimt from @rawcoffeecompany in Dubai said it best on next weeks podcast…”Decide with your integrity”. Sage advice from someone facing many challenges and opportunities right now with the crisis in West Asia (the Middle East) stacked on top of a coffee crisis. You don’t want to miss this series!

The war in Iran is impacting the coffee value chain in ways we’re not even aware of yet. While energy (oil and natural gas) and fertilizer supply disruptions continue, together with the rising costs of shipping, logistics, and insurances, there are important questions to be asked for the coffee supply chain. How deep will the disruptions go? How severe will the impact be? How long will it take to unwind from the ripple effects? (Most likely years) What will this do to the yield and quality of coffee? Even if this war stops today, the impact will be huge for coffee (weather we acknowledge it or not). Are you seeing the impacts already or do you think you’ll be immune from the effects of this war?

Is it possible that we’ve found a way to use the coffee futures market to help roaster collectives hedge against their position? If you watched episode 5 of our 5-part series with Carley Garner last week, you’ll have heard an interesting idea that Carley and I explored that would help roasters lower their risk by using the C market as an insurance tool. Coffee farmers have been subsidizing the supply chain for far too long, and it’s time to stabilize the volatility and price, with insurance that makes sense. I don’t know how to do this, and you don’t know how to do this (yet), but let’s see if we can explore this in the April monthly discussion group before involving @decarleytrading in the mix 😉! (Not a paid post) For the month of April, if you’re curious about our discussion groups, you can join for free by registering for free to our growing membership community on Patreon. (Comment below or DM if you’d like a clickable link). Would love to hear your thoughts on these potential solutions.

“How serious is the food security situation?” This was Toni Farmer’s from @tonifarmersgarden answer, and it’s one of the most sobering moments from our upcoming series with her on the podcast. If you search “Is there a global food crisis coming?”, you won’t find debate. You’ll find consensus. The question isn’t if things get worse, it’s how soon. This is not just about coffee, this is about all of agriculture. Toni lays it out plainly: • In ~5 years: food prices become a constant concern • In ~10 years: real food shortages begin • And beyond that: pressure on the core crops that make up 70% of the global diet Corn. Wheat. Soy. Sugar. Rice. This isn’t abstract. It’s structural. And it’s already underway. A new episode from this 5-part series is out each weekday this week on The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast. The full series is already available to paid members on Patreon and YouTube, now. Thank you Toni Farmer for a wonderful series!