Council on Foreign Relations

“The administration has issued licenses for 750,000 H200 chips, but those licenses are still stalled on the Chinese side. . . . It would triple China’s AI computing power capacity, if those were to go through,” says CFR expert Chris McGuire, discussing the stalled sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to Chinese companies during a media briefing on the Trump-Xi summit.

“All four [demands on Taiwan] would be pretty big policy moves, and all four of them we know the Chinese would like to see. Here’s the thing, the [Trump] administration is indicating they won’t do it,” argues CFR expert Rush Doshi, in reference to the talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Watch or listen to the latest episode of The President’s Inbox at the link in our bio or wherever you get your podcasts.

“If you see a bunch of fancy jets within a half hour all suddenly taking off to go to safer, quieter places, it might be a good signal that something really bad is about to happen,” says Rebecca Patterson, describing a web-based tool that uses FAA data to track private jets as a potential indicator of imminent catastrophe. Watch or listen to the latest episode of The Spillover at the link in bio or wherever you get your podcasts.

The United States and China have one of the most important and complex bilateral relationships in the world. Over the years, the countries have experienced periods of both tension and cooperation. Here are some moments in U.S.-China relations. Check out our timeline at the link in our bio.

“The Chinese are pretty impressed by U.S. military capability, not just in Iran, but also in Venezuela . . . . However, at the same time, even though tactically we’ve been quite impressive, they see us strategically as making a massive mistake,” argues Rush Doshi, Asia studies expert and CFR’s director of the China Strategy Initiative, in reference to the talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Watch or listen to the latest episode of The President’s Inbox at the link in our bio or wherever you get your podcasts.

"It's not going to mean they replace the dollar anytime soon, but it just keeps slowly reducing that dependency," says Rebecca Patterson, discussing China's new cross-border payment system with Indonesia amid a wider trend of countries hedging against trade dependency on the U.S. Watch or listen to the latest episode of The Spillover at the link in bio or wherever you get your podcasts.

"The direct and cascading impacts of Operation Epic Fury have pushed millions of people to the brink of starvation," argues humanitarian expert Sam Vigersky. In countries dependent on food and fuel imports, primarily in Africa and South Asia, some 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity if the war continues through June, the UN World Food Program (WFP) projects. Nine weeks of war has cost $25 billion, Pentagon Comptroller Jules Hurst III told the House Armed Services Committee on April 29. The administration is now discussing a $200 billion congressional supplemental funding package, but “not a penny is allocated for aid,” writes Vigersky. The U.S. humanitarian retreat is becoming increasingly alarming this year—but it is not for lack of budget, writes Vigersky. The State Department has some $5.4 billion in funds already appropriated for 2026. "That money remains unspent so far." In 3 countries that are one step removed from famine—Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen—a new State Department policy has outright terminated U.S. support. Afghanistan is growing more desperate by the day, Vigersky writes. The cost of importing goods into Afghanistan has tripled, according to WFP. Around 3.7 million children in the country are suffering from acute malnutrition. Delivering food aid had once involved direct transit across the Strait of Hormuz to Iran before entering Afghanistan. Now, it passes through much of Saudi Arabia before crossing Jordan, Syria, Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan—followed by a trip across the Caspian Sea by ferry and a journey across Turkmenistan. “These extra costs hollow the food budget every day the Strait of Hormuz remains a choke point,” writes Vigersky. “It is time for the State Department to respond to the moment for what it is: a spiraling humanitarian crisis that already ranks among the worst in the 21st century,” he argues. “That means aggressively spending their $5.4 billion budget to save lives and alleviate needless suffering." Read more at the link in our bio.

“The Trump administration has pushed two countries to use their break-glass tools, right? China with rare earths, and Iran with the Strait of Hormuz,” says Rush Doshi, Asia studies expert and CFR’s Director of the China Strategy Initiative, in reference to the upcoming talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Watch or listen to the latest episode of The President’s Inbox at the link in our bio or wherever you get your podcasts.

Iran could not defeat the United States militarily, but it never needed to—and China is taking note, argue Michael Schiffer and CFR expert Elisa Ewers. By choking the Strait of Hormuz, spiking energy markets, and running down the clock, Tehran offered Beijing a case study in how to impose costs without seeking victory. "For Chinese planners, the Iran war is a case study for what multi-domain warfare should look like," Ewers and Schiffer write. "By attacking the economic heartbeat of its Gulf neighbors, the Iranian regime took critical oil and gas production offline and spiked the price of both. By de facto closing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to all but those it allowed, the regime did something few scenarios over the last decades had explored: it allowed its own oil bound for China and elsewhere to transit while shutting down the rest of the outflow through the strait. It choked an economic artery, caused insurance markets to tighten and supply chains to falter, turning a regional conflict into an economic disruption. It demonstrated its leverage was not on the battlefield, but in its ability to affect the global economy." "China does not need to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan—a risky and complex undertaking. It could instead pursue a layered campaign of coercion: maritime quarantine, cyber disruption, financial pressure, and selective military action. The goal would not be immediate conquest, but cumulative pressure on Taiwan, on regional allies, and on the United States. The Iran conflict suggests this approach could work more quickly than many assume." “Deterrence is not static," they write. “It evolves with each conflict that reveals new vulnerabilities. The war with Iran, however it ends, is revealing more than most.” Read the full analysis at the link in bio.

“He wants wins. And the cute alliteration I've seen on this one is Boeings, beef, and beans,” says Rebecca Patterson on what Trump is hoping to achieve during a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Watch or listen to the latest episode of The Spillover at the link in bio or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are slated to meet in Beijing on May 14–15. It’s the first state visit from a U.S. president to China since 2017, when Trump was first in office. The summit unfolds against a backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, a fragile trade truce, and tensions over Taiwan, AI, and the U.S.-led war against Iran. We asked 5 CFR experts to analyze different aspects of the U.S.-China relationship and what to expect from the upcoming meeting. Read more at the link in our bio.

CFR expert Rush Doshi explains what to expect from the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing this week.