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54% of Americans say their financial situation is worse than it was a year ago — and that number is worse than ever. However, there's one more thing to consider...
The US isn’t just dealing with high debt — it’s dealing with slower growth at the same time. And that combination is where things start to compound.
#USdebt #DebtToGDP #EconomicGrowth #MacroTrends #Demographics #LaborForce #FiscalPolicy #Economy
April's CPI is in and inflation just hit its highest level since May 2023.
Headline came in at 3.8% year-on-year, above the 3.7% forecast. Core CPI also surprised to the upside at 2.8%. Energy drove over 40% of the monthly rise, but with shelter and food also climbing, this is no longer just an oil story.
Rate cut hopes are gone. Markets are now pricing a 30% chance of a hike by year-end. Yields are up, stocks fell on the release, and real wages slipped.
Swipe through to see what the numbers mean for markets and what traders are watching next.
#CPI #Inflation #Fed #Markets #Trading #MacroTrading #Investing
The market looks confident. Consumers don’t. That gap has opened up before — and it rarely stays unresolved.
#StockMarket #ConsumerSentiment #MacroTrends #SP500 #Economy #MarketSignals #Investing #Earnings
The US jobs report lands today and for once, traders want the good news.
April's Non-Farm Payrolls are forecast to show about 65,000 jobs added, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Not spectacular. But in the current environment, stable might be enough.
Here's the context: before last month's surprisingly strong print, the US economy had added zero net jobs over the prior 12 months. The data has been all over the place — big beats, big misses — partly due to technical issues at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So there's real uncertainty heading into today's release.
What makes this one different is the Fed's position. Inflation is still sticky, compounded by rising energy prices tied to the war in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve can't cut rates to cushion any weakness, it's stuck. That means a soft print today doesn't just disappoint on growth. It raises the harder question: what does the Fed do if the labour market starts to crack?
Markets have already started pricing this in. The Federal Funds Futures curve now implies almost no chance of further rate cuts this year. Some contracts are even pricing a rate hike, not imminently, but on the horizon.
On the FX side, will this move EUR/USD? The dollar had been supported by geopolitical risk, but de-escalating tensions in the Middle East and hopes of a US-Iran deal have started to weigh on the Greenback. A strong payrolls number could reverse that. Weakness could accelerate the dollar's slide, with EUR/USD eyeing a break of near-term resistance.
Analysis by Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com
#NonFarmPayrolls #NFP #ForexTrading #USDollar #FederalReserve
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Opinions shared are not investment advice. This material is intended for informational purposes only.
The Fed gets a new chair on 15 May. Same rates. Different voice.
Powell held firm at 3.5–3.75% and kept markets guessing. March CPI came in at 3.3% year-on-year — no data cover for a cut. Warsh steps in with a different outlook, but markets are pricing just a 12% chance of any rate cut in 2026. And he holds one vote on a multi-member committee.
A change at the top doesn't automatically mean a change in direction. The press conferences, the dissents, is that where the real signal will be?
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
#FederalReserve #Macro #Markets #InterestRates #FOMC
The FTSE 100 peaked at 10,937 back in February. Three months later, it's hovering at 10,263 — and the chart tells an interesting story.
March's geopolitical shock did real damage. The index shed over 1,000 points in weeks, nearly erasing half of its entire 2025 bull run before finding a floor around 9,800 — a level that had already held once back in November. The bounce off that zone was convincing enough. What's happened since, less so.
Two lower highs. A descending channel. A recovery that keeps stalling before it can gain any real momentum.
What makes it more interesting is the backdrop. Today, oil slid back below $98 as the ceasefire held and Project Freedom was put on pause. Yields pulled back. The S&P added 0.8%, the Nasdaq 1.3%, and AMD surged 16% after hours on a blowout earnings beat. Everything that should give risk assets a lift was in place.
The FTSE barely moved.
That contrast is the story right now. US markets are running on strong earnings and retreating energy prices. The FTSE is sitting on a technical floor — the 2026 open at 9,930 — that's held twice but hasn't inspired much confidence beyond that.
If that level goes, the next meaningful reference is 9,239: the 50% retracement of the full April 2025-to-February 2026 rally.
If it holds, the question becomes whether the index can finally start printing higher highs again.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Opinions shared are not investment advice. This material is intended for informational purposes only.
The bond market has been under pressure for years. What’s changing now isn’t just yields — it’s who’s willing to hold the debt.
#Bonds #Treasuries #InterestRates #DebtCrisis #GlobalMacro #YieldCurve #Investing #DeDollarization
