take 2!!! The NBA Playoffs bracket is now set! Sharing my projections based on my undergraduate thesis (Forecasting NBA Tournaments by Game Probabilities Obtained through Modified Elo Ratings).
Before sharing some insights and notes, Modified Elo Ratings are the ratings of each team based on the following:
- Win-Loss Record
- Margin of victory (by how much do they outscore their opponents when they win, and by how much are they outscored by their opponents when they lose?)
- Performances at home and on the road (this is useful especially when taking into account the home court advantages of the higher-seeded teams)
The first figure shows the probability of each team winning each round. The following figures show the probability of each team winning the first round and in how many games they are projected to do it.
Notes:
1. These probabilities are based solely on the performances of the teams this Regular Season. They do not take into account trades, injuries, etc. of the players, and playoff experiences of teams. Though, they will ultimately reflect in the ratings since these are based on individual game results.
2. The favorites to be the champions this year is OKC (24.2%). This is due to them having being at the top in standings and the highest average margin of victory of any team (+11.1, higher by +2.9 points than the second highest team). They are also the defending champions.
3. The Spurs have the 2nd highest chance of winning the championship (22.6%) despite not being in the playoffs the year before.
4. There are no lower-seeded teams that have a higher chance of winning the first round.
5. 6 out of the 8 first round matchups are projected to end in 5 games. The remaining 2 are projected to end in 7.
6. Despite being a 2-7 seeded matchup, the Spurs have a higher chance of winning the first round than OKC in the 1-8 seeded matchup. It is worth noting that PHX and POR switched seeds due to the Play-in Tournament.
Regular Season Schedule/Stats Source: /.../NBA_2024_games...
Ikaw at ako sa day 2 🤍✨
@johnoydanao x @amielsol2
a back-to-back intimate gig
April 30, 6pm (Thursday)
You may reserve your tickets here:
http://bit.ly/4cr5uy2
#AllTheGoodThings
#JessxPats
Ikaw at ako sa bawat sandali 🤍✨
@johnoydanao x @amielsol2
a back-to-back intimate gig
April 16, 6pm (Thursday)
You may reserve your tickets here:
https://forms.gle/Qmjsj2DgBLvdWsoJ7
#AllTheGoodThings
#JessxPats
good things take time!
i've been pursuing music for the better part of a decade. sa mga panahong open mic at busking, to being in places like this- i am equally thankful for every single one of those moments. paulit-ulit ko sasabihin dahil paulit-ulit naman itong totoo: as long as i get to pursue music, whatever scale that may be, i am successful in my eyes. lahat ng ito ay bonus na sobrang pinagpapasalamat ko! thank you everyone! sa lahat ng sumusuporta sa akin, at sa lahat ng tumatangkilik ng musika ko, this is your award as much as it is mine. thank you Lord!
para ito sa lahat ng nangangarap tulad ko! mabuhay ang OPM!
sharing this win with the producer of sa bawat sandali! @migzhaleco@wylmusic
📸 @astromanubs@jave_rck
👔 @carvey_sam
💄 @jurysorianopanganiban
